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San Francisco 49ers

HC Kyle Shanahan
@
SEA Home

Seattle Seahawks

HC Pete Carroll
Sunday 2021-12-05 · 16:25 Lumen Field, Seattle US ☀️ Clear Spread -3.0 O/U 44.5

Win Probability

SF
60.6%
SEA
39.4%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to SF: Russell Wilson (SEA) -0.029 vs Jimmy Garoppolo (SF) +0.220 EPA/dropback
  • SF offense: +0.060 EPA/play over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
  • SEA offense: -0.062 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • SEA defense: +0.034 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (19th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

SF 24
–
SEA 22
Projected margin: SF by 2 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 13

SF

Dre Greenlaw LB Out Groin
Maurice Hurst DT Out Calf
Deebo Samuel WR Out Groin
Trey Sermon RB Out Ankle
Fred Warner LB Doubtful Hamstring
Marcell Harris LB Questionable Concussion

SEA

Damien Lewis G Doubtful Elbow
Travis Homer RB Questionable Calf
Rashaad Penny RB Questionable Hamstring
Alex Collins RB Questionable Abdomen

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 13 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SF 23
–
SEA 30

Prediction missed by 9 pts on margin, 7 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 13:22 TD SEA (13:22) (Punt formation) Direct snap to 25-T.Homer. 25-T.Homer left tackle for 73 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 0 – SEA 6
  • Q1 10:34 TD SF (10:34) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass deep middle to 85-G.Kittle for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 6 – SEA 7
  • Q1 01:37 TD SF (1:37) (Shotgun) 25-E.Mitchell up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 13 – SEA 7
  • Q2 09:48 FG SF (9:48) 9-R.Gould 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky. SF 17 – SEA 7
  • Q2 05:40 TD SEA (5:40) 21-A.Peterson left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. SF 17 – SEA 13
  • Q2 02:00 TD SF (2:00) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short left to 85-G.Kittle for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 23 – SEA 14
  • Q2 00:18 TD SEA (:18) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right to 1-D.Eskridge for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 23 – SEA 20
  • Q3 10:33 SAF SEA (10:33) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo sacked in End Zone for -5 yards, SAFETY (8-C.Dunlap). SF 23 – SEA 23
  • Q3 02:34 TD SEA (2:34) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right to 16-T.Lockett for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN [97-N.Bosa]. SF 23 – SEA 29

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 6 at the 73
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.36 EP
    p(convert) 42%

    (13:22) (Punt formation) Direct snap to 25-T.Homer. 25-T.Homer left tackle for 73 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q1 SF 4th & 10 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (11:33) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 60 yards to SEA 25, Center-46-T.Pepper, downed by SF-20-A.Thomas.

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 8 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (8:51) 4-M.Dickson punts 50 yards to SF 23, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 11-B.Aiyuk.

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 20 at the 38
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 21% p(FG) 61%

    (5:48) 5-J.Myers 56 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

  • Q1 SF 4th & 1 at the 45
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71% p(FG) 43%

    (4:16) (No Huddle) 10-J.Garoppolo up the middle to SEA 44 for 1 yard (54-B.Wagner).

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 14 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (15:00) 4-M.Dickson punts 65 yards to SF 15, Center-69-T.Ott. 17-T.Benjamin pushed ob at SF 37 for 22 yards (59-J.Rhattigan).

  • Q2 SF 4th & 14 at the 32
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 75%

    (9:48) 9-R.Gould 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 20 at the 44
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 45%

    (7:01) 4-M.Dickson punts 36 yards to SF 8, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 11-B.Aiyuk.

  • Q3 SF 4th & 6 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (:28) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 37 yards to SEA 29, Center-46-T.Pepper, downed by SF-20-A.Thomas.

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 16 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (12:54) 4-M.Dickson punts 54 yards to SF 12, Center-69-T.Ott. 11-B.Aiyuk to SF 8 for -4 yards (29-J.Reid; 19-P.Hart).

  • Q4 SF 4th & 8 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (11:09) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 40 yards to SEA 37, Center-46-T.Pepper. 18-F.Swain to SEA 48 for 11 yards (44-K.Juszczyk; 27-D.Johnson). PENALTY on SEA-59-J.Rhattigan, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at SEA 37.

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 1 at the 4
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 63% p(FG) 98%

    (6:19) (Shotgun) 25-T.Homer left guard to SF 1 for 3 yards (94-J.Willis; 51-A.Al-Shaair). SF-51-A.Al-Shaair was injured during the play.

  • Q4 SF 4th & 3 at the 3 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 98%

    (:22) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass incomplete short right to 81-T.Sherfield (8-C.Dunlap).