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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 1 at the 45

San Francisco 49ers 7 – Seattle Seahawks 7

What Actually Happened

(4:16) (No Huddle) 10-J.Garoppolo up the middle to SEA 44 for 1 yard (54-B.Wagner).

The Three Options

GO +1.21 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.80 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 45, worth -2.60 EP
KICK -1.02 EP
  • 43% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.67 EP
  • 57% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -3.02 EP
PUNT -0.56 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 12, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model