Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 8 at the 77

San Francisco 49ers 23 – Seattle Seahawks 30

What Actually Happened

(11:09) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 40 yards to SEA 37, Center-46-T.Pepper. 18-F.Swain to SEA 48 for 11 yards (44-K.Juszczyk; 27-D.Johnson). PENALTY on SEA-59-J.Rhattigan, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at SEA 37.

The Three Options

GO -2.05 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.37 EP
59% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 77, worth -4.42 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model