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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 1 at the 4

Seattle Seahawks 30 – San Francisco 49ers 23

What Actually Happened

(6:19) (Shotgun) 25-T.Homer left guard to SF 1 for 3 yards (94-J.Willis; 51-A.Al-Shaair). SF-51-A.Al-Shaair was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO +3.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +5.99 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 4, worth -0.04 EP
KICK +1.73 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.78 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.98 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model