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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 10 at the 85

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Seattle Seahawks 7

What Actually Happened

(11:33) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 60 yards to SEA 25, Center-46-T.Pepper, downed by SF-20-A.Thomas.

The Three Options

GO -3.02 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +0.58 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 85, worth -5.25 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -2.63 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 43, worth -2.63 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model