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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 3 at the 3

San Francisco 49ers 23 – Seattle Seahawks 30

What Actually Happened

(:22) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass incomplete short right to 81-T.Sherfield (8-C.Dunlap).

The Three Options

GO +3.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.83 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 3, worth +0.15 EP
KICK +2.84 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.89 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 21, worth -0.08 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model