Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 6 at the 73

Seattle Seahawks 0 – San Francisco 49ers 0

(13:22) (Punt formation) Direct snap to 25-T.Homer. 25-T.Homer left tackle for 73 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO -1.43 EP

What Happened

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +2.17 EP
58% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 73, worth -4.08 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.36 EP