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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 20 at the 44

Seattle Seahawks 23 – San Francisco 49ers 23

What Actually Happened

(7:01) 4-M.Dickson punts 36 yards to SF 8, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 11-B.Aiyuk.

The Three Options

GO -0.70 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.56 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 44, worth -2.17 EP
KICK -0.46 EP
  • 45% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.24 EP
  • 55% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.69 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model