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Philadelphia Eagles

HC Nick Sirianni
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New York Jets

HC Robert Saleh
Sunday 2021-12-05 · 13:00 MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US ☀️ Clear Spread -5.0 O/U 44.0

Win Probability

PHI
60.4%
NYJ
39.6%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NYJ defense: +0.185 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • QB edge to PHI: Zach Wilson (NYJ) -0.262 vs Gardner Minshew (PHI) -0.098 EPA/dropback (PHI starting Gardner Minshew in place of Jalen Hurts)
  • PHI offense: +0.035 EPA/play over its last 8 games (14th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

PHI 23
–
NYJ 19
Projected margin: PHI by 4 Projected total: 42

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 13

PHI

Jordan Howard RB Out Knee
Boston Scott RB Questionable Illness
Jalen Hurts QB Questionable Ankle

NYJ

Sheldon Rankins DT Doubtful Knee
Trevon Wesco TE Doubtful Ankle
Folorunso Fatukasi DT Questionable Back
John Franklin-Myers DE Questionable Hip
Morgan Moses T Questionable Knee
Quincy Williams LB Questionable Calf
Corey Davis WR Questionable Groin

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 13 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

PHI 33
–
NYJ 18

Prediction missed by 11 pts on margin, 9 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 12:46 TD NYJ (12:46) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass short middle to 8-E.Moore for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 0 – NYJ 6
  • Q1 09:33 TD PHI (9:33) 10-G.Minshew pass deep left to 88-D.Goedert for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN [97-N.Shepherd]. PHI 6 – NYJ 6
  • Q1 03:19 TD NYJ (3:19) (No Huddle) 2-Z.Wilson right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 7 – NYJ 12
  • Q2 14:19 TD PHI (14:19) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew pass deep right to 88-D.Goedert for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 13 – NYJ 12
  • Q2 09:26 TD NYJ (9:26) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass short right to 86-R.Griffin for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 14 – NYJ 18
  • Q2 04:36 TD PHI (4:36) (Shotgun) 14-K.Gainwell left guard for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 20 – NYJ 18
  • Q2 00:22 FG PHI (:22) 4-J.Elliott 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-A.Siposs. PHI 24 – NYJ 18
  • Q3 06:42 FG PHI (6:42) 4-J.Elliott 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-A.Siposs. PHI 27 – NYJ 18
  • Q4 14:19 FG PHI (14:19) 4-J.Elliott 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-A.Siposs. PHI 30 – NYJ 18
  • Q4 09:46 FG PHI (9:46) 4-J.Elliott 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-A.Siposs. PHI 33 – NYJ 18

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 99%

    (9:26) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass short right to 86-R.Griffin for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 13 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (2:22) 7-B.Mann punts 45 yards to PHI 33, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 18-J.Reagor MUFFS catch, and recovers at PHI 33. 18-J.Reagor ran ob at NYJ 47 for 20 yards (83-K.Yeboah).

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 10 at the 13
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 96%

    (:22) 4-J.Elliott 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-A.Siposs.

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 14 at the 14
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 95%

    (6:42) 4-J.Elliott 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-A.Siposs.

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 7 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (5:39) 7-B.Mann punts 33 yards to PHI 34, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-87-D.Brown.

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 1 at the 34
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 73%

    (1:24) 10-G.Minshew up the middle to NYJ 34 for no gain (95-Q.Williams; 56-Qu.Williams). Philadelphia challenged the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 10-G.Minshew up the middle to NYJ 32 for 2 yards (95-Q.Williams; 56-Qu.Williams).

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 3 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 87%

    (14:19) 4-J.Elliott 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-A.Siposs.

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 4 at the 28
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 83%

    (9:46) 4-J.Elliott 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-A.Siposs.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 10 at the 37
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.44 EP
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 66%

    (5:29) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass incomplete short right to 25-T.Johnson.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 3 at the 56 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53%

    (:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass short left to 25-T.Johnson to PHI 49 for 7 yards (57-T.Edwards).