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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 10 at the 37

New York Jets 18 – Philadelphia Eagles 33

What Actually Happened

(5:29) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass incomplete short right to 25-T.Johnson.

The Three Options

GO +0.19 EP
What Happened
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +3.98 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 37, worth -1.49 EP
KICK +0.64 EP
Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
  • 34% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 46, worth -2.20 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.44 EP