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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 7 at the 67

New York Jets 18 – Philadelphia Eagles 27

What Actually Happened

(5:39) 7-B.Mann punts 33 yards to PHI 34, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-87-D.Brown.

The Three Options

GO -1.53 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.86 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 67, worth -3.78 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.92 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 25, worth -0.92 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model