4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 4 at the 28

Philadelphia Eagles 30 – New York Jets 18

What Actually Happened

(9:46) 4-J.Elliott 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-A.Siposs.

The Three Options

GO +1.34 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.19 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 28, worth -1.24 EP
KICK +1.20 EP
What Happened
  • 83% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 38, worth -1.86 EP
PUNT -0.29 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model