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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 1 at the 34

Philadelphia Eagles 27 – New York Jets 18

What Actually Happened

(1:24) 10-G.Minshew up the middle to NYJ 34 for no gain (95-Q.Williams; 56-Qu.Williams). Philadelphia challenged the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 10-G.Minshew up the middle to NYJ 32 for 2 yards (95-Q.Williams; 56-Qu.Williams).

The Three Options

GO +2.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.57 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 34, worth -1.65 EP
KICK +0.79 EP
  • 73% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 44, worth -2.16 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model