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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 3 at the 25

Philadelphia Eagles 27 – New York Jets 18

What Actually Happened

(14:19) 4-J.Elliott 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-A.Siposs.

The Three Options

GO +1.74 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.30 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 25, worth -1.05 EP
KICK +1.47 EP
What Happened
  • 87% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.95 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 35, worth -1.75 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model