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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 10 at the 13

Philadelphia Eagles 21 – New York Jets 18

What Actually Happened

(:22) 4-J.Elliott 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-A.Siposs.

The Three Options

GO +1.77 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +5.91 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 13, worth -0.09 EP
KICK +2.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.68 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 23, worth -0.30 EP
PUNT -0.09 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model