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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 14 at the 14

Philadelphia Eagles 24 – New York Jets 18

What Actually Happened

(6:42) 4-J.Elliott 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-A.Siposs.

The Three Options

GO +1.26 EP
  • 26% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.83 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 14, worth -0.37 EP
KICK +1.75 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.89 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 24, worth -1.11 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model