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Minnesota Vikings

5-7 HC Mike Zimmer
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Detroit Lions

1-10-1 HC Dan Campbell
Sunday 2021-12-05 · 13:00 ET Ford Field, Detroit US 🏟 Dome Spread -7.0 O/U 47.5

Win Probability

MIN
66.9%
DET
33.1%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: clear edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • DET offense: -0.130 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • QB edge to MIN: Jared Goff (DET) -0.113 vs Kirk Cousins (MIN) +0.165 EPA/dropback
  • DET defense: +0.113 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • MIN defense: +0.040 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (20th in the league)
  • MIN offense: +0.027 EPA/play over its last 8 games (15th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • DET on 3 more days rest than MIN

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

MIN 25 18–32
–
DET 20 13–27
Projected margin: MIN by 5 Projected total: 45

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 13

MIN

Camryn Bynum S Out Ankle
Dalvin Cook RB Out Shoulder
Christian Darrisaw T Out Ankle
Kene Nwangwu RB Questionable Illness
Mackensie Alexander CB Questionable Ribs
Anthony Barr LB Questionable Knee
Eric Kendricks LB Questionable Biceps

DET

Trey Flowers LB Out Knee
Bobby Price CB Out Shoulder
Jalen Reeves-Maybin LB Out Shoulder
D'Andre Swift RB Out Shoulder
John Penisini DT Questionable Illness
Michael Brockers DE Questionable Knee
Matt Nelson T Questionable Ankle
Penei Sewell T Questionable Illness

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 13 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

MIN 27
–
DET 29

Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 11 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 06:54 FG MIN (6:54) 1-G.Joseph 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-3-J.Berry. MIN 3 – DET 0
  • Q1 01:03 FG MIN (1:03) 1-G.Joseph 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-3-J.Berry. MIN 6 – DET 0
  • Q2 13:54 TD DET (13:54) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 88-T.Hockenson for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 6 – DET 6
  • Q2 09:51 TD DET (9:51) 16-J.Goff pass deep right to 89-B.Wright for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 6 – DET 13
  • Q2 01:37 FG DET (1:37) 6-R.Patterson 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox. MIN 6 – DET 17
  • Q2 00:10 FG DET (:10) 6-R.Patterson 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox. MIN 6 – DET 20
  • Q3 09:30 FG MIN (9:30) 1-G.Joseph 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-3-J.Berry. MIN 9 – DET 20
  • Q3 06:20 TD MIN (6:20) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 25-A.Mattison right end for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 15 – DET 20
  • Q3 02:01 FG DET (2:01) 6-R.Patterson 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox. MIN 15 – DET 23
  • Q4 12:02 TD MIN (12:02) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 17-K.Osborn for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on DET-53-C.Harris, Roughing the Passer, 1 yard, enforced between downs. MIN 21 – DET 23
  • Q4 01:54 TD MIN (1:54) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 18-J.Jefferson for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 27 – DET 23
  • Q4 00:04 TD DET (:04) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 14-A.St. Brown for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 27 – DET 29

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 9 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 44%

    (12:09) 3-J.Berry punts 46 yards to end zone, Center-42-A.DePaola, Touchback.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 DET 4th & 1 at the 59
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69%

    (10:00) 16-J.Goff up the middle to DET 41 for no gain (98-D.Wonnum, 21-B.Breeland).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 MIN 4th & 10 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 89%

    (6:54) 1-G.Joseph 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-3-J.Berry.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 DET 4th & 15 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (5:22) 3-J.Fox punts 62 yards to MIN 18, Center-47-S.Daly. 12-D.Westbrook to MIN 34 for 16 yards (26-I.Melifonwu).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 MIN 4th & 13 at the 13
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 96%

    (1:03) 1-G.Joseph 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-3-J.Berry.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 MIN 4th & 8 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (7:15) 3-J.Berry punts 49 yards to DET 10, Center-42-A.DePaola. 11-K.Raymond to DET 10 for no gain (85-D.Chisena).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 DET 4th & 7 at the 13
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 96%

    (1:37) 6-R.Patterson 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 MIN 4th & 10 at the 42
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.45 EP
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 54%

    (:35) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins sacked at DET 45 for -3 yards (99-J.Okwara).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 DET 4th & 8 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (14:24) 3-J.Fox punts 47 yards to MIN 26, Center-47-S.Daly. 12-D.Westbrook to MIN 28 for 2 yards (45-J.Cabinda).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 MIN 4th & 10 at the 12
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 96%

    (9:30) 1-G.Joseph 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-3-J.Berry.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 DET 4th & 20 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (8:00) 3-J.Fox punts 57 yards to MIN 28, Center-47-S.Daly. 12-D.Westbrook to MIN 33 for 5 yards (18-K.Hodge, 35-G.Igwebuike).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 DET 4th & 5 at the 31
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 78%

    (2:01) 6-R.Patterson 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 MIN 4th & 11 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (5:39) 3-J.Berry punts 37 yards to DET 19, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 11-K.Raymond.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 DET 4th & 1 at the 72 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71%

    (4:08) 16-J.Goff sacked at DET 21 for -7 yards (48-B.Lynch). FUMBLES (48-B.Lynch) [79-K.Willekes], RECOVERED by MIN-48-B.Lynch at DET 19.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 DET 4th & 2 at the 11 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.92 EP
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 97%

    (:04) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 14-A.St. Brown for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    See the full breakdown →