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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 15 at the 80

Detroit Lions 0 – Minnesota Vikings 3

What Actually Happened

(5:22) 3-J.Fox punts 62 yards to MIN 18, Center-47-S.Daly. 12-D.Westbrook to MIN 34 for 16 yards (26-I.Melifonwu).

The Three Options

GO -2.58 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.94 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 80, worth -4.39 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -1.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 37, worth -1.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model