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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 7 at the 13

Detroit Lions 14 – Minnesota Vikings 6

What Actually Happened

(1:37) 6-R.Patterson 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox.

The Three Options

GO +1.54 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.54 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 13, worth -0.35 EP
KICK +1.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.99 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 23, worth -0.95 EP
PUNT -0.28 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model