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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 2 at the 11

Detroit Lions 23 – Minnesota Vikings 27

What Actually Happened

(:04) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 14-A.St. Brown for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +1.02 EP
What Happened
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +1.90 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP
KICK +2.94 EP
Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +3.04 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 22, worth +0.04 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.92 EP