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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 10 at the 42

Minnesota Vikings 6 – Detroit Lions 17

What Actually Happened

(:35) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins sacked at DET 45 for -3 yards (99-J.Okwara).

The Three Options

GO +0.04 EP
What Happened
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +2.86 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 42, worth -1.38 EP
KICK +0.49 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.46 EP
  • 46% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -1.81 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 12, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.45 EP