4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 10 at the 12

Minnesota Vikings 6 – Detroit Lions 20

What Actually Happened

(9:30) 1-G.Joseph 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-3-J.Berry.

The Three Options

GO +1.65 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.20 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 12, worth -0.31 EP
KICK +1.73 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 22, worth -1.01 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model