Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 20 at the 85

Detroit Lions 20 – Minnesota Vikings 9

(8:00) 3-J.Fox punts 57 yards to MIN 28, Center-47-S.Daly. 12-D.Westbrook to MIN 33 for 5 yards (18-K.Hodge, 35-G.Igwebuike).

The Three Options

GO -3.27 EP

25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.75 EP
75% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 85, worth -4.96 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model