Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 8 at the 59

Minnesota Vikings 6 – Detroit Lions 14

(7:15) 3-J.Berry punts 49 yards to DET 10, Center-42-A.DePaola. 11-K.Raymond to DET 10 for no gain (85-D.Chisena).

The Three Options

GO -0.92 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.59 EP
61% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 59, worth -3.17 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model