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Carolina Panthers

HC Matt Rhule
@
MIA Home

Miami Dolphins

HC Brian Flores
Sunday 2021-11-28 · 13:00 Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens US ☀️ Clear Spread -1.0 O/U 41.0

Win Probability

CAR
34.9%
MIA
65.1%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CAR offense: -0.147 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • Tua Tagovailoa (MIA): +0.160 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • MIA offense: -0.034 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • CAR defense: -0.078 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • MIA defense: +0.028 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (17th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

CAR 20
–
MIA 25
Projected margin: MIA by 5 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 12

CAR

John Miller G Doubtful Ankle

MIA

Elijah Campbell CB Out Toe
Adam Shaheen TE Out Knee
Trill Williams CB Out Hamstring
Brandon Jones S Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 12 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CAR 10
–
MIA 33

Prediction missed by 18 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:18 TD MIA (9:18) 10-L.Edwards punt is BLOCKED by 45-D.Riley, Center-44-J.Jansen, RECOVERED by MIA-27-J.Coleman at CAR 2. 27-J.Coleman for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 0 – MIA 6
  • Q1 06:09 TD CAR (6:09) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 6 – MIA 7
  • Q2 09:06 TD MIA (9:06) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left to 17-J.Waddle for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 7 – MIA 13
  • Q2 04:32 TD MIA (4:32) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 37-M.Gaskin. 37-M.Gaskin right end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 7 – MIA 20
  • Q2 00:01 FG CAR (:01) 5-Z.Gonzalez 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-L.Edwards. CAR 10 – MIA 21
  • Q3 04:14 TD MIA (4:14) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 37-M.Gaskin. 37-M.Gaskin left end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 10 – MIA 27
  • Q4 11:03 FG MIA (11:03) 7-J.Sanders 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-5-M.Palardy. CAR 10 – MIA 30
  • Q4 03:45 FG MIA (3:45) 7-J.Sanders 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-5-M.Palardy. CAR 10 – MIA 33

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 6 at the 91
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (9:18) 10-L.Edwards punt is BLOCKED by 45-D.Riley, Center-44-J.Jansen, RECOVERED by MIA-27-J.Coleman at CAR 2. 27-J.Coleman for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 11 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 24%

    (1:51) 5-M.Palardy punts 44 yards to CAR 9, Center-44-B.Ferguson, fair catch by 13-A.Erickson.

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 5 at the 48
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 35%

    (11:57) 5-M.Palardy punts 35 yards to CAR 13, Center-44-B.Ferguson, fair catch by 13-A.Erickson.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 12 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (7:30) 10-L.Edwards punts 57 yards to MIA 20, Center-44-J.Jansen. 17-J.Waddle to MIA 27 for 7 yards (42-S.Franklin, 85-M.Cole).

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 15 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (3:37) 10-L.Edwards punts 55 yards to MIA 25, Center-44-J.Jansen. 8-J.Holland to MIA 32 for 7 yards (42-S.Franklin; 50-J.Stanford).

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 15 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (1:41) 5-M.Palardy punts 46 yards to CAR 15, Center-44-B.Ferguson, out of bounds.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 10 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (:59) 10-L.Edwards punts 40 yards to MIA 32, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 8-J.Holland.

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 59%

    (13:06) (Punt formation) Direct snap to 34-S.Chandler. 34-S.Chandler right end pushed ob at CAR 47 for 14 yards (42-C.Fejedelem).

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 8 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 28%

    (11:43) 10-L.Edwards punts 51 yards to end zone, Center-44-J.Jansen, Touchback.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 1 at the 27
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 83%

    (14:05) 26-S.Ahmed left end to CAR 24 for 3 yards (26-D.Jackson).

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 14 at the 28
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 82%

    (11:03) 7-J.Sanders 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 1 at the 28
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 82%

    (6:50) Direct snap to 81-D.Smythe. 81-D.Smythe up the middle to CAR 27 for 1 yard (90-D.Jones, 91-M.Fox).

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 8 at the 14 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 95%

    (3:45) 7-J.Sanders 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 2 at the 43 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 48%

    (2:36) (Shotgun) 6-P.Walker pass short right to 11-R.Anderson to MIA 28 for 15 yards (38-Ja.Davis) [43-A.Van Ginkel].