4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 2 at the 67

Carolina Panthers 10 – Miami Dolphins 21

What Actually Happened

(13:06) (Punt formation) Direct snap to 34-S.Chandler. 34-S.Chandler right end pushed ob at CAR 47 for 14 yards (42-C.Fejedelem).

The Three Options

GO -0.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.64 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 67, worth -3.92 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.33 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 25, worth -1.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model