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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 15 at the 80

Carolina Panthers 7 – Miami Dolphins 21

What Actually Happened

(3:37) 10-L.Edwards punts 55 yards to MIA 25, Center-44-J.Jansen. 8-J.Holland to MIA 32 for 7 yards (42-S.Franklin; 50-J.Stanford).

The Three Options

GO -2.79 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.60 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 80, worth -4.51 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -1.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 37, worth -1.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model