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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Miami Dolphins
4th & 1 at the 27
Miami Dolphins 27 – Carolina Panthers 10
What Actually Happened
(14:05) 26-S.Ahmed left end to CAR 24 for 3 yards (26-D.Jackson).
The Three Options
GO
+2.57 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.37 EP
- 34% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 27, worth -0.90 EP
KICK
+1.51 EP
- 83% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.18 EP
- 17% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 37, worth -1.85 EP
PUNT
+0.09 EP
- Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.09 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
