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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 11 at the 53

Miami Dolphins 7 – Carolina Panthers 7

What Actually Happened

(1:51) 5-M.Palardy punts 44 yards to CAR 9, Center-44-B.Ferguson, fair catch by 13-A.Erickson.

The Three Options

GO -1.00 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.14 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 53, worth -2.80 EP
KICK -1.46 EP
  • 24% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.11 EP
  • 76% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.60 EP
PUNT -0.58 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 15, worth -0.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model