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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 1 at the 28

Miami Dolphins 30 – Carolina Panthers 10

What Actually Happened

(6:50) Direct snap to 81-D.Smythe. 81-D.Smythe up the middle to CAR 27 for 1 yard (90-D.Jones, 91-M.Fox).

The Three Options

GO +2.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.18 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 28, worth -1.33 EP
KICK +1.06 EP
  • 82% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.73 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 38, worth -1.95 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model