Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 6 at the 91

Carolina Panthers 0 – Miami Dolphins 0

(9:18) 10-L.Edwards punt is BLOCKED by 45-D.Riley, Center-44-J.Jansen, RECOVERED by MIA-27-J.Coleman at CAR 2. 27-J.Coleman for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO -3.05 EP

44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 85, worth +0.20 EP
56% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 91, worth -5.57 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (108 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model