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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 15 at the 61

Miami Dolphins 21 – Carolina Panthers 7

What Actually Happened

(1:41) 5-M.Palardy punts 46 yards to CAR 15, Center-44-B.Ferguson, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.88 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +1.70 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 61, worth -3.19 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -1.27 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 20, worth -1.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model