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ATL Away

Atlanta Falcons

HC Arthur Smith
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JAX Home

Jacksonville Jaguars

HC Urban Meyer
Sunday 2021-11-28 · 13:00 TIAA Bank Stadium, Jacksonville US 🌧 Rain Spread -1.5 O/U 46.0

Win Probability

ATL
49.0%
JAX
51.0%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • ATL offense: -0.067 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • JAX defense: +0.102 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • Trevor Lawrence (JAX): -0.088 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • JAX offense: -0.069 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • ATL defense: +0.072 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
  • ATL on 3 more days rest than JAX

Predicted Final Score

ATL 21
–
JAX 22
Projected margin: JAX by 1 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 12

ATL

Jonathan Bullard DE Out Ankle
Kendall Sheffield CB Out Hamstring
Deion Jones LB Questionable Shoulder
Cordarrelle Patterson RB Questionable Ankle

JAX

Shaquill Griffin CB Out Concussion

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 12 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

ATL 21
–
JAX 14

Prediction missed by 8 pts on margin, 8 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 00:46 TD ATL (:46) (No Huddle) 84-C.Patterson left end for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 6 – JAX 0
  • Q2 06:46 TD ATL (6:46) 84-C.Patterson up the middle for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 13 – JAX 0
  • Q2 00:50 FG JAX (:50) 15-M.Wright 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke. ATL 14 – JAX 3
  • Q3 07:54 TD ATL (7:54) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 14-R.Gage for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 20 – JAX 3
  • Q3 00:29 TD JAX (:29) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short middle to 7-T.Austin for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 21 – JAX 9
  • Q4 06:33 FG JAX (6:33) 15-M.Wright 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke. ATL 21 – JAX 14

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 12 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 40%

    (10:10) 19-T.Morstead punts 32 yards to JAX 14, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by [4].

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 10 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (6:03) 9-L.Cooke punts 44 yards to ATL 19, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 35-A.Williams.

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 6 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (8:36) 19-T.Morstead punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-47-J.Harris, Touchback.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.74 EP
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 98%

    (:50) 15-M.Wright 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 1 at the 41
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.53 EP
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 53%

    (:03) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete deep left (3-M.Walker) [3-M.Walker].

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 3 at the 54
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.76 EP
    p(convert) 52%

    (12:55) 9-L.Cooke punts 42 yards to ATL 12, Center-46-R.Matiscik, out of bounds.

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 3 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54%

    (6:30) 9-L.Cooke punts 44 yards to ATL 24, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 35-A.Williams to ATL 27 for 3 yards (50-S.Quarterman).

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 1 at the 64
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.28 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (4:20) 19-T.Morstead punts 54 yards to JAX 10, Center-47-J.Harris. 4-J.Mickens to JAX 28 for 18 yards (47-J.Harris; 51-B.Copeland).

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 9 at the 42
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 50%

    (13:06) 19-T.Morstead punts 32 yards to JAX 10, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 4-J.Mickens.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 16 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 94%

    (6:33) 15-M.Wright 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 14 at the 57 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (2:29) 19-T.Morstead punts 51 yards to JAX 6, Center-47-J.Harris. 4-J.Mickens to JAX 17 for 11 yards (88-F.Darby; 3-M.Walker). FUMBLES (88-F.Darby), recovered by JAX-27-C.Claybrooks at JAX 18.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 10 at the 71 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.66 EP
    p(convert) 35%

    (1:23) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete deep right to 10-L.Shenault.