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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 9 at the 42

Atlanta Falcons 21 – Jacksonville Jaguars 11

What Actually Happened

(13:06) 19-T.Morstead punts 32 yards to JAX 10, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 4-J.Mickens.

The Three Options

GO -0.24 EP
Model's Pick
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.69 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 42, worth -2.21 EP
KICK -0.42 EP
  • 50% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -2.74 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 12, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model