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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 3 at the 54

Jacksonville Jaguars 3 – Atlanta Falcons 14

What Actually Happened

(12:55) 9-L.Cooke punts 42 yards to ATL 12, Center-46-R.Matiscik, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.13 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.96 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 54, worth -2.99 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.63 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 16, worth -0.63 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.76 EP