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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 10 at the 63

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Atlanta Falcons 0

What Actually Happened

(6:03) 9-L.Cooke punts 44 yards to ATL 19, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 35-A.Williams.

The Three Options

GO -1.24 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.87 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 63, worth -3.35 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.36 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 21, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model