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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 14 at the 57

Atlanta Falcons 21 – Jacksonville Jaguars 14

What Actually Happened

(2:29) 19-T.Morstead punts 51 yards to JAX 6, Center-47-J.Harris. 4-J.Mickens to JAX 17 for 11 yards (88-F.Darby; 3-M.Walker). FUMBLES (88-F.Darby), recovered by JAX-27-C.Claybrooks at JAX 18.

The Three Options

GO -1.07 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.16 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 57, worth -2.37 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.61 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 17, worth -0.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model