Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 3 at the 68

Jacksonville Jaguars 3 – Atlanta Falcons 21

(6:30) 9-L.Cooke punts 44 yards to ATL 24, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 35-A.Williams to ATL 27 for 3 yards (50-S.Quarterman).

The Three Options

GO -0.83 EP

54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.71 EP
46% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 68, worth -3.85 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model