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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 3 at the 3

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Atlanta Falcons 14

What Actually Happened

(:50) 15-M.Wright 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO +3.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.26 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 3, worth +0.26 EP
KICK +2.27 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.32 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 21, worth -0.53 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.74 EP