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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 1 at the 41

Jacksonville Jaguars 3 – Atlanta Falcons 14

What Actually Happened

(:03) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete deep left (3-M.Walker) [3-M.Walker].

The Three Options

GO +0.85 EP
What Happened
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +1.32 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 41, worth -0.17 EP
KICK +1.39 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +3.01 EP
  • 47% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 49, worth -0.46 EP
PUNT +0.02 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 12, worth +0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.53 EP