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Arizona Cardinals

HC Kliff Kingsbury
@
SEA Home

Seattle Seahawks

HC Pete Carroll
Sunday 2021-11-21 · 16:25 Lumen Field, Seattle US ☀️ Clear Spread 2.5 O/U 46.0

Win Probability

ARI
55.5%
SEA
44.5%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • ARI offense: +0.079 EPA/play over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
  • SEA defense: +0.067 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • ARI defense: -0.141 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • QB edge to ARI: Russell Wilson (SEA) -0.034 vs Colt McCoy (ARI) -0.042 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

ARI 24
–
SEA 22
Projected margin: ARI by 2 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 11

ARI

DeAndre Hopkins WR Out Hamstring
Justin Pugh G Out Calf
Tanner Vallejo LB Out Knee
Jonathan Ward RB Out Concussion
Budda Baker S Questionable Heel
Colt McCoy QB Questionable Pectoral
Max Garcia C Questionable Achilles
Kyler Murray QB Questionable Ankle
Corey Peters DT Questionable Shoulder
James Wiggins S Questionable Knee

SEA

Jamal Adams S Questionable Groin
Jamarco Jones T Questionable Back
D.J. Reed CB Questionable Groin
Cody Barton LB Questionable Quadricep
Kerry Hyder DE Questionable Calf

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 11 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

ARI 23
–
SEA 13

Prediction missed by 8 pts on margin, 10 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 02:51 TD ARI (2:51) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-C.McCoy pass short middle to 86-Z.Ertz for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 6 – SEA 0
  • Q2 08:28 FG SEA (8:28) 5-J.Myers 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson. ARI 7 – SEA 3
  • Q2 01:56 TD ARI (1:56) (Shotgun) 79-J.Jones reported in as eligible. 12-C.McCoy to SEA 6 for -4 yards. FUMBLES, and recovers at SEA 6. 12-C.McCoy pass short middle to 86-Z.Ertz for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN [98-A.Robinson]. ARI 13 – SEA 3
  • Q2 01:09 FG SEA (1:09) 5-J.Myers 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson. ARI 13 – SEA 6
  • Q3 13:02 FG ARI (13:02) 5-M.Prater 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-B.Brinkley, Holder-14-A.Lee. ARI 16 – SEA 6
  • Q4 07:08 TD SEA (7:08) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 31-D.Dallas up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 16 – SEA 12
  • Q4 02:23 TD ARI (2:23) (Shotgun) 6-J.Conner left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 22 – SEA 13

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 16 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (12:28) 4-M.Dickson punts 53 yards to ARI 10, Center-69-T.Ott. 4-R.Moore to ARI 18 for 8 yards (19-P.Hart; 31-D.Dallas).

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 16 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 41%

    (12:48) 4-M.Dickson punts 42 yards to ARI 5, Center-69-T.Ott, out of bounds.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 11 at the 96
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (10:38) 14-A.Lee punts 41 yards to ARI 45, Center-43-B.Brinkley, out of bounds.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 9 at the 9
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 97%

    (8:28) 5-J.Myers 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 1 at the 47
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71% p(FG) 41%

    (5:16) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-J.Conner up the middle to SEA 46 for 1 yard (56-J.Brooks; 99-A.Woods). Seattle challenged the first down ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 6 at the 9
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 97%

    (1:09) 5-J.Myers 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 6 at the 35
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 70%

    (13:02) 5-M.Prater 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-B.Brinkley, Holder-14-A.Lee.

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 7 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (10:56) 4-M.Dickson punts 60 yards to end zone, Center-69-T.Ott, Touchback.

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 3 at the 59
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.68 EP
    p(convert) 56%

    (8:54) 14-A.Lee punts 43 yards to SEA 16, Center-43-B.Brinkley. 18-F.Swain to SEA 22 for 6 yards (45-D.Gardeck).

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 4 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (6:51) 4-M.Dickson punts 50 yards to ARI 10, Center-69-T.Ott. 4-R.Moore to ARI 22 for 12 yards (59-J.Rhattigan).

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 15 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (3:03) 14-A.Lee punts 48 yards to SEA 24, Center-43-B.Brinkley. 18-F.Swain to SEA 27 for 3 yards (33-A.Hamilton).

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 20 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24%

    (1:38) 4-M.Dickson punts 52 yards to ARI 15, Center-69-T.Ott, downed by SEA-25-T.Homer.

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 5 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 93%

    (9:01) 5-M.Prater 36 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-43-B.Brinkley, Holder-14-A.Lee.

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 12 at the 67 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.99 EP
    p(convert) 31%

    (1:22) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete deep right to 16-T.Lockett [94-Z.Allen].

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 10 at the 33 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +2.05 EP
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 75%

    (:24) 14-A.Lee punts 33 yards to end zone, Center-43-B.Brinkley, Touchback.