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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 3 at the 59

Arizona Cardinals 16 – Seattle Seahawks 6

What Actually Happened

(8:54) 14-A.Lee punts 43 yards to SEA 16, Center-43-B.Brinkley. 18-F.Swain to SEA 22 for 6 yards (45-D.Gardeck).

The Three Options

GO -0.17 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.22 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 59, worth -3.19 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.85 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 18, worth -0.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.68 EP