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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 15 at the 72

Arizona Cardinals 16 – Seattle Seahawks 6

What Actually Happened

(3:03) 14-A.Lee punts 48 yards to SEA 24, Center-43-B.Brinkley. 18-F.Swain to SEA 27 for 3 yards (33-A.Hamilton).

The Three Options

GO -2.50 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +1.70 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 72, worth -4.41 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.72 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 30, worth -1.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model