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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 11 at the 96

Arizona Cardinals 7 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(10:38) 14-A.Lee punts 41 yards to ARI 45, Center-43-B.Brinkley, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -3.41 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 85, worth +0.60 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 96, worth -5.96 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (113 yards).

PUNT -3.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 53, worth -3.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model