Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 12 at the 67

Seattle Seahawks 13 – Arizona Cardinals 23

(1:22) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete deep right to 16-T.Lockett [94-Z.Allen].

The Three Options

GO -1.88 EP

What Happened

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +0.59 EP
69% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 67, worth -2.99 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.99 EP