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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 5 at the 18

Arizona Cardinals 16 – Seattle Seahawks 6

What Actually Happened

(9:01) 5-M.Prater 36 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-43-B.Brinkley, Holder-14-A.Lee.

The Three Options

GO +1.51 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +4.91 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 18, worth -0.94 EP
KICK +1.50 EP
What Happened
  • 93% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 28, worth -1.46 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model