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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 4 at the 60

Seattle Seahawks 6 – Arizona Cardinals 16

What Actually Happened

(6:51) 4-M.Dickson punts 50 yards to ARI 10, Center-69-T.Ott. 4-R.Moore to ARI 22 for 12 yards (59-J.Rhattigan).

The Three Options

GO -0.60 EP
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.36 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 60, worth -3.28 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.49 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 19, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model