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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 20 at the 67

Seattle Seahawks 6 – Arizona Cardinals 16

What Actually Happened

(1:38) 4-M.Dickson punts 52 yards to ARI 15, Center-69-T.Ott, downed by SEA-25-T.Homer.

The Three Options

GO -1.92 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +3.03 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 67, worth -3.49 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 25, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model