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Chicago Bears

HC Matt Nagy
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Pittsburgh Steelers

HC Mike Tomlin
Monday 2021-11-08 · 20:15 Heinz Field, Pittsburgh US ☀️ Clear Spread 7.0 O/U 40.0

Win Probability

CHI
29.1%
PIT
70.9%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CHI offense: -0.122 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • QB edge to PIT: Ben Roethlisberger (PIT) -0.013 vs Justin Fields (CHI) -0.279 EPA/dropback
  • CHI defense: +0.085 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (25th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

CHI 18
–
PIT 25
Projected margin: PIT by 7 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 9

CHI

Nick Foles QB Out Not injury related - personal matter
J.P. Holtz TE Out Concussion
Khalil Mack LB Out Foot
Damien Williams RB Out Knee
Eddie Jackson S Doubtful Hamstring
Alec Ogletree LB Questionable Ankle
Darnell Mooney WR Questionable Groin

PIT

Eric Ebron TE Out Hamstring
B.J. Finney C Questionable Back

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 9 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CHI 27
–
PIT 29

Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 13 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:46 TD PIT (9:46) 22-N.Harris left guard for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 0 – PIT 6
  • Q2 13:28 TD PIT (13:28) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short left to 88-P.Freiermuth for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 0 – PIT 13
  • Q2 00:19 FG CHI (:19) 2-C.Santos 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. CHI 3 – PIT 14
  • Q3 07:48 FG CHI (7:48) 2-C.Santos 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. CHI 6 – PIT 14
  • Q3 02:14 TD PIT (2:14) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short right to 88-P.Freiermuth for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on CHI-22-K.Vildor, Defensive Pass Interference, declined. CHI 6 – PIT 20
  • Q4 14:23 TD CHI (14:23) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 32-D.Montgomery. 11-D.Mooney left end for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 12 – PIT 20
  • Q4 11:59 FG PIT (11:59) 9-C.Boswell 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin. CHI 13 – PIT 23
  • Q4 06:47 TD CHI (6:47) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 57 yards to PIT 20, Center-48-P.Scales. 14-R.McCloud to PIT 29 for 9 yards (45-J.Iyiegbuniwe). FUMBLES (45-J.Iyiegbuniwe), RECOVERED by CHI-36-D.Houston-Carson at PIT 25. 36-D.Houston-Carson for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 19 – PIT 23
  • Q4 02:56 FG PIT (2:56) 9-C.Boswell 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin. CHI 20 – PIT 26
  • Q4 01:52 TD CHI (1:52) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass deep left to 11-D.Mooney for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 26 – PIT 26
  • Q4 00:30 FG PIT (:30) 9-C.Boswell 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin. CHI 27 – PIT 29

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 2 at the 70
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.69 EP
    p(convert) 60%

    (13:13) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 43 yards to PIT 27, Center-48-P.Scales. 14-R.McCloud pushed ob at PIT 41 for 14 yards (35-R.Nall).

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 6 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (7:51) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 49 yards to PIT 36, Center-48-P.Scales. 14-R.McCloud to PIT 42 for 6 yards (20-D.Shelley).

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 13 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 28%

    (4:36) 6-P.Harvin punts 38 yards to CHI 12, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 17-J.Grant.

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 1 at the 27
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 82%

    (:13) 22-N.Harris left guard to CHI 25 for 2 yards (6-D.Trevathan; 58-R.Smith).

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 3 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53%

    (12:04) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 54 yards to PIT 14, Center-48-P.Scales. 14-R.McCloud to PIT 17 for 3 yards (36-D.Houston-Carson).

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 7 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (9:19) 6-P.Harvin punts 32 yards to CHI 48, Center-46-C.Kuntz, out of bounds.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 1 at the 82
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.99 EP
    p(convert) 74%

    (5:00) 6-P.Harvin punts 46 yards to CHI 36, Center-46-C.Kuntz, out of bounds.

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 12 at the 12
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 96%

    (:19) 2-C.Santos 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 3 at the 48
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.71 EP
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 33%

    (12:50) 6-P.Harvin punts 41 yards to CHI 7, Center-46-C.Kuntz, downed by PIT-41-R.Spillane.

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 4 at the 4
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.50 EP
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 98%

    (7:48) 2-C.Santos 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 1 at the 24
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 86%

    (4:38) 22-N.Harris up the middle to CHI 23 for 1 yard (58-R.Smith; 59-C.Marsh).

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 1 at the 36
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.85 EP
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 64%

    (11:59) 9-C.Boswell 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 18 at the 39
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.46 EP
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 56%

    (8:06) 6-P.Harvin punts 39 yards to end zone, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Touchback.

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 7 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (6:47) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 57 yards to PIT 20, Center-48-P.Scales. 14-R.McCloud to PIT 29 for 9 yards (45-J.Iyiegbuniwe). FUMBLES (45-J.Iyiegbuniwe), RECOVERED by CHI-36-D.Houston-Carson at PIT 25. 36-D.Houston-Carson for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 5 at the 34 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 69%

    (2:56) 9-C.Boswell 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 1 at the 23 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 88%

    (:30) 9-C.Boswell 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.