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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 1 at the 27

Pittsburgh Steelers 7 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(:13) 22-N.Harris left guard to CHI 25 for 2 yards (6-D.Trevathan; 58-R.Smith).

The Three Options

GO +2.93 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.49 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 27, worth -0.38 EP
KICK +1.96 EP
  • 82% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.68 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 37, worth -1.41 EP
PUNT +0.64 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth +0.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model